The Kremlin's plan is to eliminate all attributes of sovereignty of Belarus. A.Lukashenko, in agreement with the Kremlin, plans to take the post of president of the union state with nominal powers.
Subject to this condition and receiving guarantees of personal inviolability, Lukashenko expressed his readiness to hold a constitutional referendum, as well as parliamentary and presidential elections in Belarus. Lukashenko and Putin announced how the Anschluss will proceed on September 14 in Sochi - these will be the so-called Constitutional reforms. The new Constitution will include annexation, as well as the formation of a single national authority (common president, parliament, judicial bodies, a single emission center). Moscow plans to push through the Belarusian Constitution in a referendum, hoping to bribe the Belarusian society.
Through changes to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, the Kremlin plans to bind Belarus to itself so reliably that it no longer has to worry that it might go to the West. The constitutional reform is not planned as a step towards a drastic democratization of Belarusian political life. The constitution can be changed so that all the previous presidential terms of Lukashenko are “reset”.
Putin has shown that he is not ready to provide serious assistance to Lukashenko. The only public signal after four hours of negotiations between Lukashenko and Putin is the withdrawal of the "reservists" of the Russian OMON from the border and a new loan of $ 1.5 billion.
This is obviously not enough to save the “father of the Belarusian autocracy”. This is less than the existing budget deficit, less than the required amount of payments on the state debt. The money will be spent almost immediately on preventing default and short-term rescue of the financial system. This is not help, but a gesture that shows just unwillingness to provide it - at least for now. Putin specifically stressed that this money is not for Lukashenko, but for Belarus - within the framework of the obligations that the Russian Federation assumed in 1992-1994.
Belarus can turn out to be an excellent springboard for destabilizing Europe in all directions. Putin's goal is to completely absorb Belarus in addition to Crimea. But this time, and unlike Crimea, the Russian Federation intends to make this annexation as “legal” as possible, so as not to subsequently expose itself to the risk of another application of sanctions by the West.
Russia has a significant arsenal of the main forces and means to establish full control over Belarus. The geostrategic goal of the Russian Federation is the full-fledged deployment of the "Union State of Russia and Belarus" with an eye to incorporate into it (if possible) other territories, such as occupied Abkhazia and ORDLO (uncontrolled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions ) of Ukraine. The Russian Federation is already using the territory of Belarus for its military preparations, conducting joint military exercises ("Slavic Brotherhood"). In addition, A.Lukashenko has repeatedly stated about the possibility of deploying Russian military fighters on the territory of Belarus near the borders with Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland.
Representatives of the Lukashenko regime and the Russian media are simultaneously conducting information and psychological operations to create an imaginary threat from NATO and Ukraine. The striking journalists and the technical staff of the Belteleradiocompany have already been replaced by several groups of Russian specialists in information warfare. The priority goals of the Russian Federation at the current stage are to establish control over the information space and the socio-political sphere of Belarus.
The Russian Federation needs the maximum weakening of the Lukashenko regime, which is already bursting at the seams, the catalyzing of its toxicity and the restoration of its international isolation - all this so that at the right time there are grounds, if necessary, to use a controlled transfer of power and replace it with another pro-Russian figure with the post of the head of Belarus.
The current situation around the Belarusian protests looks too advantageous for the Russian leadership to be content with restoring the status quo of Lukashenko's regime. The Kremlin has already “invested” enough funds and resources into the buildup of the situation and into the “outbid” of the opposition and continues to do so in order to use this moment in the future so that in the future Lukashenko will cease to be the only and irreplaceable support of Russian influence in Belarus.
Another Lukashenko's re-election campaign in August 2020 has been selected for a key strike. In May, three months before that, three new opponents of the current government suddenly appeared, who had never before been the subjects of the political process and had not declared their claims to the highest office in the state. All persons of this "new opposition" are in one way or another connected with the Russian Federation.
If the European Union and the United States with Great Britain, as always, confine themselves to only “deep concern”, then the “integration” of Belarus and Russia will proceed very quickly and without hindrance. Such a "merger" could free the Kremlin's hands in subsequent aggressive actions to return the former Soviet republics to Moscow's channel. This will be followed by a final return to the state of the "cold war", which in modern conditions will be conducted by other methods that the Russian Federation has used over the past 6-10 years, namely, large-scale information campaigns and interference in electoral processes, demonstrative murders, financing of terrorists and working out his goals from among the representatives of the diplomatic services of democratic states, not only threats, but also the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons in the event that any actions are suddenly considered a threat, etc.
The Kremlin was not stopped by the half-hearted measures of the world community with the expansion of the "individual list" or "targeted sanctions" for the crimes committed by seizing the territories of other countries (Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine), financing world terrorism, supporting criminal regimes or killing politically objectionable people using various types of weapons (including chemical). A simple warning from the Kremlin not to send its soldiers to a neighboring country is not enough. The world community should have a tough reaction to the actions of the Russian Federation, with a complete economic embargo, the shutdown of the SWIFT payment system and international isolation.
Belarus completes the collapse of the USSR with its protests. It is the Belarusians who put an end to this process. Belarus has shown that the conflict between autocracy and its electoral legitimation can be resolved by abandoning either elections or autocracy.
