The Russian world is tearing at the seams… The armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has testified to the fact that Moscow has practically no influence left in the Caucasus. It became clear to everyone in the international arena that Vladimir Putin's geopolitical ambitions do not correspond to his real capabilities to influence the situation in the region.
The Kremlin has long been trying to persuade the West and NATO that their collective security is worthless and that when the day comes, no Western power would stand up for the Ally, but the realities prove the opposite.
Within the Collective Security Treaty Organization, where Russia is an informal leader supposed to ensure stability for member states, the Kremlin has chickened out of supporting Armenia in the latest stand-off around Nagorno-Karabakh. The thing is that Russia is simply unprepared to cross swords with NATO.
On October 14, Azerbaijan's army struck the border regions of Armenia, destroying with a ballistic missile a combat-ready missile system. That's per the official report by the Azerbaijani defense ministry.
"Operational-tactical missiles had been targeting Ganja, Mingachevir, and other cities of Azerbaijan, aimed at inflicting civilian casualties and destroying civilian infrastructure. To ensure safety of civilian population, this missile launcher on launch position, being a legitimate military target, was destroyed in a preemptive strike.
Earlier, at 01:00, an high-recision strike destroyed operational-tactical missile systems, deployed to launch positions in the same area. There was no civilian infrastructure or facilities at the sites where missiles had been brought to combat readiness for launch, "the message says.
In response, the Armenian military accused Azerbaijan of engaging on unfounded assumptions: "The armed forces targeted military hardware on combat duty in the border zone with Karvachar on the territory of the Republic of Armenia, simply based on assumptions that this hardware was ready to strike peaceful settlements in Azerbaijan." In this regard, following the incident, "the armed forces of the Republic of Armenia reserve the right, according to the same logic, to target any military object or maneuvers on the territory of Azerbaijan."
Armenia's harsh reaction is understandable. Since September 27, Azerbaijan has been systematically destroying military hardware and weapons, which the Armenian army is already lacking. After all, it's kind of hard to repel tanks or drones with bayonets. Armenia can only dream of armaments available to Azerbaijan and Turkey. What Yerevan has at hand is obsolete military rubbish of the Soviet era, which Russia has been selling them for years. By the way, Armenia's image is far from clean – its forces have earlier been accused of provocative shelling of Azerbaijani settlements.
And while Armenia and Azerbaijan are trying to find out who's right and who's to blame for the incident, Russia pretends that nothing happened. Vladimir Putin remains silent, leaving his defense minister Sergei Shoigu to call on his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts to implement the ceasefire agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh earlier reached in Moscow. Russia's top diplomat came for the rescue of the country's defense chief, telling a pool of Russian radio stations: "We [Russia – ed.] have never qualified Turkey as our strategic ally." How about that, Turkey?!
It was relatively recently though, in July 2019, when Vladimir Putin said: "The partnership with our neighbor Turkey has reached a strategic level; we are in constant contact with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan." In fact, Moscow tried to "befriend" Ankara, even as the Turks were killing Russian mercenaries in Syria and abandoning Russian gas in favor of Azerbaijan's... Moscow clenched its teeth and accepted all that, but now, it appears, the "ungrateful" Turkey went on to support Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.
For an outsider, it might seem that Russia has decided to follow in EU's footsteps as Europeans traditionally opt for limiting themselves to diplomatic statements on most conflicts. In reality, however, Moscow simply decided that a "bad peace is better than a good war" with Baku and Ankara… After all, unlike Ukraine or Belarus, Armenia won't go anywhere anyway, the Kremlin assumes.
Russia is aware that Turkey, a NATO Ally, has the bloc's second-strongest army following that of the United States, and the world's tenth, according to various estimates. The Turkish troops are believed to be the most trained ones in the region. Soldiers undergo training in line with NATO standards and have at their disposal modern military hardware and weapons, having also gained massive combat experience.
And now, as Russia sees such potential adversary as Azerbaijan, with Turkey behind its back, not a trace is seen of Moscow's traditional brazenness in foreign relations.
In one of his interviews in July 2020, Vladimir Putin seemed to have felt it was time to stop rattling sabers: "I don't think that in defending our interests, we should look like some kind of morons, some razor-wielding madmen running around and waving it, while also naming others some incomprehensible names."
Perhaps, many would have believed Putin on that, had it been not for a little nuance – Russia has a number of obligations in relation to Armenia, a CSTO member state. The main task of the organization is to protect the territorial and economic space of its members through the joint efforts of armies and auxiliary units to repel any external military or political aggressors. But while Azerbaijan is shelling Armenia, the CSTO is hiding out in the bush. As soon as the other participants – Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan – realize how worthless the treaty is, they will simply withdraw, leaving the Kremlin and its notorious "Russian world" behind.
Since the onset of the latest escalation, Russia has declared the CSTO has nothing to do with the mess as the disputed region is not part of Armenia. Even today, now that Azerbaijan has shelled Armenia's border regions and an Armenian General Artak Tonoyan – killed in Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow remains on hold.
One of Russia's major propaganda talking heads, Vladimir Solovyov, apparently stunned at the Kremlin's silence, said: "Am I missing something here? What's the CSTO? Is Armenia – which is our ally – under our protection or not? The armed forces of Azerbaijan have directly confirmed the strike on the territory of Armenia. At the same time, they call it a preemptive move... That is, they believe that they can hit targets on our ally's territory." He called Azerbaijan's shelling of Armenia a direct challenge, a slap in Russia's face, and a blow to Russia's authority as an ally.
By the way, the CSTO did issue a statement in this regard, although it was hardly pleasing to Yerevan. On October 15, CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas calmly stated: "There is an active discussion underway of peacekeeping efforts in the region." In other words, shut up while we're thinking how we can save the "Russian World" and not get a whooping from Azerbaijanis and Turks. Perhaps Russia is considering deploying a military contingent under the peacekeepers' guise… But maybe the Kremlin is just not sure that the Russians are ready to die on yet another piece of foreign soil for the sake of Putin's geopolitical maneuvers.
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh requires that Moscow confirm its status it's been claiming for years – that of the guarantor of peace and stability in the region, which Russia considers its zone of influence. However, Moscow won't succeed in resolving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Incidentally, it is unlikely to be too willing to succeed, either. After all, it's Moscow that benefits most from the emergence of hot spots and instability zones across the post-Soviet space.
Also, we shouldn't forget about Turkey, which claims to be a regional leader in the Caucasus. Recep Erdogan's dream is to build a massive Turkic space on the Soviet ruins, which is clearly in breach of Putin's geopolitical plans. Moscow could somehow influence Ankara through NATO, but it has hopelessly spoiled relations with the West, especially after the Navalny poisoning. On October 15, the EU slammed new sanctions on Russia over Navalny, so there any full-fledged cooperation in the international arena is off the table for Russia at the moment.
The EU doesn't like Russia, whose government is okay with using banned chemical weapons for political reprisals, but Russians also are not amused by the West either. The Levada Center's poll released the other day says 82% of Russians believe that modern Russia has real adversaries. Some 70% of respondents say it's the U.S., 14% – Ukraine, 10% – UK, 7% – the EU, 7% – Poland, 5% – the collective West, 5% – Germany, 5% – Baltic States, 4% – China, and 3% – NATO. For some reason, neither Turkey, which has been actively wiping its feet on Russia in the Caucasus, nor Azerbaijan are on that list. Ukraine though is believed to be Russia's second-loathed enemy, following the U.S.
So while Vladimir Putin keeps making up and telling Russians all those boogeyman stories about Russia's adversaries, while Russian propagandists are trying portray NATO as a weak bloc, the Russian world is tearing at the seams and Moscow can't do pretty much anything about it.
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