G. Fridman (Stratfor) podróżował w listopadzie 2010 roku po Europie Wschodniej, która dla niego oznacza: Turcję, Rumunię, Moładwię, Ukrainę i Polskę. Testował swoja koncepcje zwiazku tych państw jako Intermarum, dzielacego Rosję od Europy. Na temat Polski, a szczególnie jej elit, wyrobił sobie opinię zdecydowanie negatywną, ze wzgledu na nierealne postrzeganie własnego kraju w Europie i swiecie, szkodliwą politykę gospodarczą.
Pozwoliłem sobie skomentowac jego obserwacje w ponizszym tekscie w języku angielskim.
Poland – intermarium or New Commonwealth?
Poland has joined the European Union in 2004 when old model of this community lost its aptitude. Threat from the East was considered as irrelevant and in result the EU nation states were reshaping their policies. Further then, economic crisis confirmed that European Union is not working as a unified block, but as a gathering of individual nation states of different interests. Decision to support Greece or Ireland, leaders of the EU – in means mainly Germany – was done in order to secure their narrow economic interest: export markets there. In this way Germans have also revealed that peripheral countries of Europe are today objects in a play of nations more efficient economically, then real subjects. It was a result of their false economic policy of deindustrialization, of developing service industry as supplementary to the core of Europe. Second confirmation of old UE idea desintegration came from Lisbon after NATO gathering in November 2010. New strategy presented there underline that member countries have no need for common military strategy. There is no Soviet Union and Russia is considered not as a thread but as a market opportunity and source of row materials, an area of expansion for leading countries of EU (Germany, UK, France, Italy) industry competing fiercely with growing strength of China, still strong Japan, and having on horizon new powers: India and Brazil. US Asiatic ambitions are diverting step by step from European sphere of narrow interests of small nations located there.
European Union as a common undertaking has been established as a contra to Russian (then Soviet Union, but it is only a change in name) military thread but in a big extend also to American competition. We should have in mind that East was also attractive as in sixties and seventies soviet model looks as attractive for many in the Western Europe. It is now forgotten, but strength of Western European left was based on achievements of Soviet Union – visible by sputniks, Gagarin etc.
Today eastern thread is considered as non – existent, Moscow is not yet a full scale partner, but definitely not an enemy. Russia diminishing industrial capacities, dramatic social situation and vast resources are seen as an opportunity enabling this country to be absorbed within European “koine” of business. Europe has always limited commercial approach to the matters of this world and does not share American vision considered as unpractical.
The leader of Europe, Germany, could not relay on her traditional partners: France and UK, both loosing their international position, transferring themselves to the level of medium sized European countries like Italy, Spain or Poland. German industry is successful – this export oriented country must care about markets and row material resources. Countries of European peripheries, like Spain, Portugal, Poland, Baltic countries have too small capacity as markets and are unable to offer sufficient supply of production resources – even their labor is now in short supply.
Only proper opportunity lays in the East – in Russia. It is scenario in which new Europe will be shaped.
Europe is facing necessity to work out new model of her existence in the world – partially returning to her roots, when there were few hubs of gravity – around Alps (Germany, France, Northern Italy), in the south around Bosfor and in the East – Russia or a new entity.
In the middle between Germany and Russia is Poland subordinated in the last two hundred years either to Germany or to Russia, but never as a stable element of either of them.
Reason is in a different culture of all three elements of this central – eastern European puzzle; German protestant, Polish catholic, Russian orthodox mentality.
It was not always like that; till end of XVIII century Poland was a part of commonwealth of nations, called: Rzeczpospolita (translated as Republic but better meaning is English translation of the same Latin original: Commonwealth). Polish was there a language of communication, as it is now English in India, but we can not say that this South Asia country is under control of small island close to the banks of Northern Europe – it is country on her own, as was Rzeczpospolita (Commonwealth), as strange amalgamate of Ukrainian, Byelorussian, Lithuanian and Polish nobles (the last have been in minority, the most wealthy and numerous were Ukrainians), peasants, not considered as a nation of common roots with nobles, rather a separate race, Jewish population of cities (with their own language and religion – Chasidism is Rzeczpospolita’s Jews invention) and a number of mostly religious runaways from Western Europe: German, Dutch, Scottish etc.
This country had a king – but elected and without any real power – French Henry Valois resigned immediately from the post when an opportunity arose in his native country where king has a meaning. Real power was in hands of big aristocracy, so called magnates: Ukrainians: Wiśniowiecki (one of them had been elected as a king), Czetwertyński, Zasławski, Ostrogski (descendants of Kiev kings, big dukes Rurykovitz), Potocki, Zamoyski (last to of Polish ethnicity), Tyszkiewicz (Belarusian), Sapieha, Radziwiłł, (Lithuanians). Their vast possessions (few bigger in territory then Belgium) have been located in Ukraine and Belarus – ethnic Poland has been too small to accommodate them. Rzeczpospolita was the biggest country of Europe, successfully fighting with Turks ( the main enemy with the longest record of wars), Muscovy – and not Germany miss few conflicts in the middle ages with Teutonic order – later Germans has not been real danger. Core of the existence was tolerance – all aristocracy spoke Polish in general, but did not share the same faith – in fact most of them have been orthodox. All run excellently till Counter Reformation. Catholic offensive divided Rzeczpospolita – orthodox joined Muscovy, the country of the same faith, remaining small ethnic Polish land has been absorbed by neighbors – Prussia and Austria, where in fact most of ethnic Poles already leave.
This disappearance of Rzeczpospolita has however grave consequence – vanish of a big stabilizing force in centre of Europe resulted in continuous social unrest in their lands. Apart of Polish mutinies, Jews has been under continuous threads demolishing their independent life with separate parliament (exception in Europe only possible in multi religious Kingdom of Poland), local self government and rich intellectual life. Ukrainian peasants fighting with Polish nobles (as noted most of them Ukrainian in origin) and Russian administration, Russian rusification policy and similar German germanization added only fuel to the bubbles in the hot cattle of debris of Rzeczpospolita. People of former country have no opportunity to resolve problems of their own – they have been engaged in response to foreign incursions.
The worst happened in the years of the Second World War – territory of Rzeczpospolita turned out in killing fields, Bloodlands, as Timothy Snyder called them in his recent book (Timothy Snyder “Bloodland: Europe between Hitler and Stalin” Basic Books, 2010) . Holocaust took place mainly there – Auschwitz is the most known name, but there are numbers of other places, majority not concentration camps, but simply factories of death; Treblinka, Maidanek, Sobibór – just to name few and thousands of villages, cities of Belarus, Ukraine where there was not even any camp – people has been killed on the spot, in places where they lived. Almost all Jewish population perishes from the hands of Germans with often active support of local population: Poles, Ukrainians, Balts etc. And not only Jews – it was occasion to clean country of others – Poles in Ukraine, educated and rich peasant in Ukraine by Russians and their Ukrainian supporters, Russian military men by Germans (few millions). Total number of killed is enormous – Poland itself is quoting six million – three of native Jews and three of ethnic Poles.
This is heritage of Bloodlands of all these nations in former Rzeczpospolita territory.
Today we still can see Rzeczpospolita on Europe maps: it is covered now by Ukraine, Belarus, part of Poland and Baltic countries. Notwithstanding to the heritage of Bloodlands, germanization and rusification, annihilation of Jews – there is still common core of cultural tradition.
Rzeczpospolita can be recovered – for the good of Europe, and for Russia as well, restraining her in her imperial ambition and creating a chance to concentrate on well being of her own population.
Offspring of recovery should come from Ukraine – the biggest country of the region, of rich independent culture – this country should be the centre of Rzeczpospolita, as it was in the past. Not Poland, weakened by two millions of economic emigration, unindustrialized after 1990, poor in natural resources, too small to play independent role. Poland is still under influence of Counter Reformation ideology – in which Christianity is only a form, but core is pagan. Christ was elected as a King of Poland in contradiction to the second commandment (the highest in the world concrete figure of Christ in crown just has been built in Western Poland in November, 2010 – not three hundreds years ago). It looks that many Poles are following their Jewish countrymen from Moses time when God was their tribe leader. Polish – Jewish uneasy marriage still seams in minds of Poles. They are obstacles in a construction of new Rzeczpospolita – maybe it will be better to leave them in periphery of European Union. What is important, after 1945, Poland has been pushed to the west vacating her territories in the east hold for almost thousand years. This new, western areas have been periphery of Germany for hundreds years and in result Poles only replace Germans there but pastoral mainly environment has not changed. From border of Poland is only 80 kilometers to Berlin.
Ukraine is a country between East and West – the East is not Russia, North European country, but Turkey and Central Asia – as it was in the past. Polish and Ukrainian are languages very similar, only writing is different (Latin and Cyrillic). This recovered country could be home again for all: catholic, orthodox, Jews, Ukrainians, Balts etc, based on tolerance and real human commonwealth. It is the best globalized concept for people living on vast European plain between Oder and Don. Today Russia territory is equal to area of Great Duchess of Muscovy at the end of Xvii century when Rzeczypospolita extended from sea (Baltic) to sea (Black).
Russia counter balanced by Rzeczpospolita in the west and China in the east will have no choice – dreams of imperial might must be abandoned if this country has to survive. Russian imperium was built on blood of his citizens. Moscow elite have followed Mongol tradition of governance till end of Soviet Union, and sill is looking back to it as a source of glory. It is not adequate today, when new threads are coming. Russia was always a part of Europe which adopted only eastern form of suppressing own people. Russia enormous resources overshadowed countries to the west of his borders – smaller but with far more urbane civilization. Reduced to the standard European size, Russia could build wealthy country. This idea, called in the past: promethean, means independent nation states not dominated by only one nation. It is idea of Rzeczpospolita, of European Union, of United States, of India – all democratic, open, and vibrant.
Reestablishment of Rzeczpospolita would be return to old European scenario: Turkey as a heir to Ottoman Imperium itself being inheritor of Byzantium – in the same place around Bosfor, controlling Middle East and stopping Iranians; next European Union being squire of Romans and Charlemagne, Rzeczpospolita on the east counter balanced by Russia the successor of Muscovy.
Maybe it looks fantastic, but who expected thirty years ago that Soviet Union, superpower will implode without any foreign invasion and since that moment with economy smaller then that of Dutch will vegetate on a brink of further disintegration? Turkey was that time considered only as an American airfield and supplier of labor to Germany and not as an important political player not only on regional level of Middle East but more global.
There is a bit of sense in history, that strong countries emerge in hubs – in lands close to Bosporus, on juncture of French and German plateau, northern steppes of Ukraine.
