Ciekawa prognoza agencji Stratfor na rok 2012:
www.stratfor.com/forecast/annual-forecast-2012
W szczegołności polecam ten fragment:
Russia and the West
Russia will continue managing various crises with the West -- mainly the United States and NATO -- while shaping its relationships in Europe. Moscow and Washington will continue their standoff over ballistic missile defense and U.S. support for Central Europe, and Moscow will react to the ongoing row by increasing security pressure on Central Europe and bolstering its economic presence in the region. Russia will use these crises as an opportunity to deepen divisions among the Europeans, between the Europeans and the United States, and within NATO while promoting the perception that Russia is being forced to act aggressively. The security situation will become tenser, and Russia will attempt to push these crises with the United States to the brink without actually rupturing relations -- a difficult balance.
Russia will also use the financial and political crises in Europe to bolster its influence in strategic countries and sectors. Moscow and Berlin will continue their close relationship, especially in economic matters and security, but Russia will focus more on Central Europe in areas of security and energy and in picking up assets. There is no real counter to Russia in Europe, as the Europeans will be absorbed with domestic and EU issues. But this does not mean Russia has a free pass, as it must still manage the domestic effects of its neighbors' crisis.
Stratfor przewiduje:
- różne kryzysy między Rosją a USA i NATO
- m. in. w sprawie tarczy antyrakietowej w Europie Środkowej
- Rosja będzie grała na skłócenie Europejczyków i Amerykanów
- będzie wzrost napięcia w stosunkach z Rosją
- Rosja i Niemcy będą blisko wspołpracowały, szczególnie w sprawach gospodarczych oraz dotyczących bezpieczeństwa
- Rosja skoncentruje się na Europie Środkowej, a w szczególności na sprawach energetycznych i bezpieczeństwa
- nie ma dla Rosji przeciwwagi w Europie, pogrążającej się w kryzysie
