Dzisiaj czytałam w blogu Łukasza Warzecha kuriozalne zdania:
co do samego ocieplenia klimatu i jego ewentualnych skutków oraz wyjątkowości nie ma bynajmniej zgody w świecie naukowym...Padamy dziś ofiarą ekologicznej politycznej poprawności.
Jednak fakty są takie, ze od publikowania trzeciego raportu IPCC (Międzyrządowy Zespół do spraw Zmian Klimatu) prawie nikt w świecie naukowym nie ma watpliwosci co do ocieplenia klimatu.
IPCC został założony w 1988 przez dwie organizacje Narodów Zjednoczonych - Światową Organizację Meteorologiczną (WMO) oraz United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) w celu oceny ryzyka związanego z działalnością ludzi na zmianę klimatu. Głównymi dokumentami emitowanymi przez IPCC są jego raporty dotyczące zmian klimatycznych.
Czwarty raport został opracowany przez trzy zespoły pracownicze. Pierwszy zespól opracował naukowe podstawy (Physical Science Basis), drugi zespól skutki (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), a trzeci zespól zajmował się redukcja (Mitigation of Climate Change).
W streszczeniu zespołu I czytamy:Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is
now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice, and rising global average
sea level
i fakty:
- Eleven of the last twelve years (1995–2006) rank among
the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of
global surface temperature (since 1850). The updated
100-year linear trend (1906 to 2005) of 0.74°C [0.56°C
to 0.92°C] is therefore larger than the corresponding
trend for 1901 to 2000 given in the TAR of 0.6°C
[0.4°C to 0.8°C]. The linear warming trend over the
last 50 years (0.13°C [0.10°C to 0.16°C] per decade)
is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. The total
temperature increase from 1850–1899 to 2001–2005 is
0.76°C [0.57°C to 0.95°C]. Urban heat island effects
are real but local, and have a negligible infl uence (less
than 0.006°C per decade over land and zero over the
oceans) on these values.
- New analyses of balloon-borne and satellite
measurements of lower- and mid-tropospheric
temperature show warming rates that are similar
to those of the surface temperature record and are
consistent within their respective uncertainties, largely
reconciling a discrepancy noted in the TAR. - The average atmospheric water vapour content has
increased since at least the 1980s over land and ocean
as well as in the upper troposphere. The increase is
broadly consistent with the extra water vapour that
warmer air can hold. - Observations since 1961 show that the average
temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths
of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been absorbing
more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system.
Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing
to sea level rise. - Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on
average in both hemispheres. Widespread decreases
in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea level
rise (ice caps do not include contributions from the
Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets).
- New data since the TAR now show that losses from
the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have very
likely contributed to sea level rise over 1993 to 2003
(see Table SPM.1). Flow speed has increased for some
Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers, which drain ice
from the interior of the ice sheets. The corresponding
increased ice sheet mass loss has often followed
thinning, reduction or loss of ice shelves or loss of
fl oating glacier tongues. Such dynamical ice loss is
suffi cient to explain most of the Antarctic net mass
loss and approximately half of the Greenland net mass
loss. The remainder of the ice loss from Greenland has
occurred because losses due to melting have exceeded
accumulation due to snowfall. - Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8
[1.3 to 2.3] mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate
was faster over 1993 to 2003: about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8]
mm per year. Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003
refl ects decadal variability or an increase in the longerterm
trend is unclear. There is high confi dence thatthe rate of observed sea level rise increased from the
19th to the 20th century. The total 20th-century rise is
estimated to be 0.17 [0.12 to 0.22] m. - For 1993 to 2003, the sum of the climate contributions
is consistent within uncertainties with the total sea level
rise that is directly observed (see Table SPM.1). These
estimates are based on improved satellite and in situ
data now available. For the period 1961 to 2003, the
sum of climate contributions is estimated to be smaller
than the observed sea level rise. The TAR reported a
similar discrepancy for 1910 to 1990.


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