UNEXPECTED TWIST - REPORT FROM WITTENBERG (II)

Thirty two years ago, in August 1976, polls were unanonymous: the Democratic presidential nominee, Jimmy Carter, was going to win with the incumbent Gerald Ford in a landslide. Two thirds of the Americans wanted to see him in the White House.

The governor of Georgia offered everything the American public supposedly demanded: he was outside the Washington establishment, expressed the spirit of energy and one of his slogans was Time for a Change. Most importantly, he represented a new quality in the despised world of politics. Ford could only respond with experience and foreign policy credentials. Yet, as the election day was getting closer, more and more people began to consider these traits as the most important ones: Carter might have been more attractive than Ford, but the vision of him running the country started to be seen as too risky. Ultimately he won, but with only 2% margin; during just three months he managed to lose some 30% of his support.

What this has to do with the current situation? According to Dr. Mark Rozell from George Mason University Ford is now being reenacted by John McCain and Carter by Barack Obama. The Democratic candidate is generally considered as the more appealing politician, yet the electorate may also see him as too risky. And as Ford was able to improve his standing so greatly, why would it be impossible to McCain to make up the differency of only 6 to 8%? The presidential race, no matter how the media report it, is still far from conclusion.

Of course, roles can be reversed. Four years later, when Carter was challenged by Reagan, it was he who had the advantage of administrative and foreign policy experience. Reagan with his cowboy image was considered to be unpredictable in office and therefore too risky. The candidates remained tied in the polls until last week before the elections, when the only TV debate with the contenders was organized. Reagan's performace was so impressive it changed the hearts and minds of the voters – one week later the governor of California won in a landslide. Therefore McCain should not feel so sure about his natural advantages because the situtation may change any minute – although Obama definitely does not have such acting experience like Reagan.

Speaking of the Democratic candidate, his visible supremacy over McCain in the media is hard to miss. But it's not because of their conscious choices or anti-Republican conspiracy. Rozell points out at the personal factor – most of the political journalists belongs to the potential Obama electorate. They're young, they come from big cities, they're quite well financially – it's no wonder even if they try to remain unbiased, they subconsciously gravitate towards Obama. It's true the media work in favor of one candidate but not as the result of a coordinated action. Conspiracy theorists, at least at this point, are wrong.

By the way, reports about the horridness of German cuisine are greatly exaggerated. We are not fed only with Sauerkraut, Bratwurste or Kartoffelnsalad – in fact, the menu is much more diverse and shows the host nation as surprisingly sophisticated. Student dorms also make good impression – compared with the Polish ones they're even posh. Stay tuned and see you next time!