Analysis of the development of the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border allows us to draw certain conclusions.
The Russian Federation artificially organizes the migration crisis and uses Belarus to create a new point of destabilization of the security situation in Eastern Europe. Russia has long been using proven methods of pressure to achieve its geopolitical goals.
The migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border is one of the Kremlin's tools to induce the EU to negotiate with the Russian Federation to accelerate the launch of Nord Stream 2, reduce the sanctions pressure on Russia, legalize the so-called «LDNR», and recognition of the annexed Crimea as Russian territory.
Through the migration crisis, Moscow also plans to legitimize Lukashenko by initiating talks between the «President of Belarus», unrecognized by the international community and the European Union.
The most important thing in the use of hybrid instruments of the Russian Federation is precisely the concealment or distortion of its role in destructive activity. Russian intelligence agencies are managing the migration crisis at the borders of the European Union using a strategy similar to the one that Russia used in Ukrainian Crimea in 2014 and is still using in eastern Ukraine.
Russia, waging a hybrid war in the format "we are not there" and "this is not us", uses illegal migrants and A. Lukashenko's regime to destabilize the situation on the eastern borders of the EU. Also in 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine, using the "green men" in Crimea for a hybrid occupation of the peninsula, and then introduced its sabotage groups into Donbass under the guise of "militias of the people's republics."
To be continued...