First Read: Trump Is on the Cusp of Putting Away the GOP Race

by Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann

First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.

Trump on the cusp of putting away GOP race

If Sunday's NBC/WSJ/Marist poll showing Donald Trump ahead by 15 points in Indiana is correct, then Trump's path to the Republican presidential race would turn into a cakewalk. And this kind of result in Indiana, which holds its primary on Tuesday, would knock out Ted Cruz and the "Stop Trump" movement. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll found Trump getting support of 49% of likely GOP primary voters in Indiana -- followed by Cruz at 34% and John Kasich at 13%.

Given that Indiana awards its 57 delegates by a combination of winner-take-all in the state, as well as winner-take-all in each congressional district, a 15-point spread would mean Trump would get all of the delegates. That would put the real-estate mogul on easy street to get the 1,237 delegates needed to win a majority on a first ballot: Trump would need to win just 40% of remaining delegates after Indiana -- down from the 46% he needs right now. Maybe more importantly, a defeat in Indiana by any size would cripple Cruz and #NeverTrump. After all, if you can't beat Trump in Indiana, where else can you beat him? Of course, there's the possibility our poll isn't right; another recent poll showed Cruz ahead in the Hoosier State. But every other Indiana poll has Trump ahead. And if that holds on Tuesday, then this Trump line seems true: "If we win Indiana, it's over." Here's the current GOP delegate math:

Trump holds a 433-delegate lead over Cruz