MACIEJ JOZEFOWICZ: What is according to you the influence of the latest events in Georgia on the campaign? Will the foreign policy be more important issue comparing with the situation before the crisis?
PROFESSOR MARK ROZELL: I think the crisis in Georgia certainly highlights the important role the president plays in the foreign policy and the fact it happened during the campaign season probably makes many Americans think a little bit more carefully about the president’s role in the world. However, I should also mention that for the most part Americans – and I think this is similar to the people in another countries as well – look to domestic issues much more prominently than they do to the foreign policy ones. Plus, the studies have shown it’s the domestic economy more that anything else that drives people’s perceptions about political parties and the candidates running in the elections. Although Georgia highlighted the importance of foreign policy and the president’s role as the global policy leader, in the end I think most Americans still will make up their minds based on domestic issues.
Mainly the economy?
More than anything else. Usually, if the economy is doing poorly Americans punish the party that is in the White House at that time. Whether fair or not, Americans tend to perceive the party that controls the White House has responsibility for the current state of the economy. Saying that, it should be a really good year for the Democratic Party. But surprisingly to many people, the presidential race still looks pretty close, even though all the indicators about the domestic economy suggest it should be an easy year for the Democrats to win.
So do you think that people are more likely to believe Obama on the economic issues?
I think so. Because the economy is doing so poorly, people, according to polls, largely blame the Bush administration policies and the policies of the Republican Party. Therefore more people are going to give consideration to the Democratic Party’s alternative policies. Barack Obama is articulating the theme of change and for many people that means getting the United States out of its current economic mess.
Has he already suggested some specific solutions?
That’s the problem. Candidates can talk in campaigns about what they would like to do or make any promises about what they would like to achieve in the economy but in reality the American system is a market-driven economy and it’s the decisions of millions of consumers every day that drive the marketplace, not the decisions of the government . I think there is a huge disconnect there – Americans expect that their government has some degree of control over the economy and the government policies are responsible for setting the directions of economy, whereas in reality it’s simply not true. Market forces, decisions of private individuals in the marketplace drive the economy more than anything else.
So even Obama cannot save the economy?
Obama cannot save the economy. I think people have to be very cautious about their expectations. As I’ve been saying on and on in this campaign, many people are projecting very high expectations on Barack Obama, should he be elected, about what he can achieve on the world stage or in the domestic economy. Mean while in reality it’s going to be very difficult to be the president in 2009. There are some very difficult issues on the world stage the next president will have to deal with, and the American domestic economy is not doing well. One man, despite the power of the presidency, cannot turn those things around in the short term.
That means it will be difficult for him to maintain his support?
That’s exactly right. A lot of presidential scholars say the president should try to capitalize something we call “the honeymoon period”. The analogy to the marital one is the first months of the presidency are the time when everybody is really happy with each other and haven’t had time to forge disagreements. That’s an opportunity for the president to try to project power and get things done because the Congress and the public opinion are going to give more leeway. But over time the presidents make decisions which inevitably alienate some segments of American population. Then they start losing support over time. That will happen with the next president whether it’s McCain or Obama.
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