MACIEJ JOZEFOWICZ: Do you consider healthcare to be also an important issue?
PROFESSOR MARK ROZELL: Absolutely. I think what many people find surprising about the American system is that there is a great deal of discontent with current healthcare coverage and the fact there are many Americans who are not covered by healthcare policy and yet this issue does not seem to drive elections as strongly as many feel that it should. I’m not exactly sure the reason why but some candidates in the past have proposed ideas for national healthcare system and those ideas simply have not been acceptable to the American population. So, despite some well acknowledged flaws in the current healthcare system and the lack of coverage of some Americans it still continues the same way.
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What are the other important issues besides those already mentioned?
If you look in the opinion polls the most significant issue for Americans is the domestic economy. The second most important, not surprisingly, is the war in Iraq and the third one is energy and the cost of living. After those come education, healthcare and the variety of mostly domestic issues as well as domestic terrorism. Again, the polls point out that Americans tend to think first and foremost about domestic issues in deciding which candidate they would vote for. Right now, of course, as the country is at war, external factors are exceptionally important. The US’s role in Iraq and how we feel about it’s future is of course a very big issue.
Who has now the bigger chances to use Iraq at his own benefit?
More Americans think that McCain is qualified on foreign policy, national security issues and performing the role of commander-in-chief than those who believe Obama would be qualified to perform those roles. For example, if the polls suggested that foreign policy and national security issues were predominant in this campaign, John McCain would be winning. But the fact the Americans are focusing more on domestic issues, which is, frankly, typical of all American elections, gives Obama the advantage that he currently has.
So, if the economy were not in such a bad shape, McCain would have bigger chances to win?
That’s right. If the economy were doing well, if there were not such a discontent with Bush and the Republicans, McCain would be seen as a successor to the successful administration and the party’s successful policies, but that’s not the case. He’s running against strong opposition against the Republican Party and in the campaign he’s trying to show himself as being different from most of the Republicans. He’s running more like an independent candidate with the label of being Republican than a typical Republican.
So despite of all the criticism of the war in Iraq and the Bush administration in general the outcome of the elections will be dependent largely on economy, the politicians cannot really do much with?
That’s a perfectly fair point. Again, there is a disconnect between people’s perceptions about the economy, that is the belief, for example, that our leaders have a great deal of control over the state of economy, and on the other hand the reality, that is the markets drive the economy, not decisions of government. Government has a marginal impact on economy but it has an impact on psychology of workers. If people have faith in their leaders, they might think more positively about investing in the economy because they think the country is in good and secure hands. I’m not saying the government is a neutral or irrelevant factor of the economy but it has really only a small impact on it.
Then it’s the economy that will decide?
More than anything else. Unless there is a big international crisis, one has to always keep in mind that possibility. And if there were such major destabilizing event the polls right now say the Americans really believe that John McCain is better able to protect our country in times like that. So the situation could still change in favor of the Republicans.
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